Experts, Agents Split on This Year's Housing Price Forecast

Opinions from real estate experts and licensed agents on this year's housing price outlook have diverged significantly. According to the '2026 KB Real Estate Report' released by KB Financial Group, while both groups predicted price increases in a January survey, a April survey showed 56% of experts forecasting a rise and 54% of agents predicting a fall.

Factors cited for potential price increases included a shortage of housing supply and rising construction costs leading to higher new home prices. Conversely, reasons for a potential decline included stricter loan regulations and increased tax burdens. Both groups anticipated that the magnitude of price fluctuations would not be significant, with experts most frequently projecting a 0-1% increase and agents anticipating a 0-1% decrease.

Regionally, outlooks for the Seoul metropolitan area showed some divergence. Real estate experts anticipated a 1-3% price increase in the Seoul metropolitan region, while many agents expected a level of 0-1%. For non-metropolitan areas, both experts and agents foresaw a price decline.

Regarding the stabilization of the overheated Seoul metropolitan housing market, experts predicted next year or 2028, while agents expected stabilization after 2028. For jeonse (lump-sum deposit) prices, both experts and agents predicted an increase, with over 80% of respondents forecasting a rise. The expected increase was estimated to be in the range of 0-3%.

The report noted a cooling trend in the market recently, attributed to the government's tightened regulations and an increase in available properties. While last year saw a phenomenon of extreme polarization with high price increases in Seoul and its surrounding areas contrasting with price drops in provincial metropolitan cities, the shortage of developable land in the Seoul metropolitan area, rising construction costs, and reduced supply of non-apartment housing continue to act as destabilizing factors.

This year's housing market will likely be heavily influenced by government policies. Potential reforms in real estate taxation and the effectiveness of supply-side measures could sway market sentiment. Although supply-demand imbalances are difficult to resolve in the short term, downward factors such as rising loan interest rates are expected to limit the extent of price increases. Dr. Kang Min-seok from KB Research Institute stated that government policies, including expanding supply in the Seoul metropolitan area and real estate-related taxes, will be the key variables determining future market trends.